According to commenter ‘Gabe’ on Nate Silver’s latest post:
Model held pretty well (using NYT website for result numbers):
PA: Model R +.1, Result R +1, Difference .9
MI: Model D +1.2, Result R +1.4, Difference 2.6
WI Model D +1, Result R +.9, Difference 1.9
NC Model R +1.1, Result R +3, Difference 1.9
GA Model R +1 Result R+2, Difference 1
NV Model R +.6, Result R+5, Difference 4.4
AZ Model R +2.4, Result R+5, Difference 2.6
Uuh! NO!! Although these are (almost) all within $#\pm#$3%, the differences are ALL in the same direction – which has almost no chance of happening if they were truly random.
So Silver’s “gut” feeling was a much better predicter than his actual model.
Source: Comments – The story of Trump’s win was foretold in New York City