Is Success Luck or Hard Work? – YouTube

I like this guy’s videos and certainly endorse the ideas expressed in this one:
But despite his byline he sometimes puts slickness ahead of veritacity and the bit about the astronaut selection model is unfortunately misleading. In the model both skill and luck are assigned by chance and the labelling was arbitrary, so the same argument would work the other way to show that if the selection was based 95% luck and 5% talent then all of the selected would in fact be talented – and more generally in a highly competitive selection process, any factor which contributes 5% to each evaluator’s judgement will turn out to be essentially a prerequisite for selection.

See also ‘The Drunkards Walk’ by Leonard Mlodinow

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